Venezuela turmoil meets Bitcoin breakout

January 05, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Bitcoin breaks $92K as whales return, Venezuela tensions add macro fuel

Key points:

  • Bitcoin pushed past $92,000 amid a sharp rise in whale activity, signaling renewed speculative interest rather than retail-led momentum.

  • Geopolitical shocks tied to Venezuela, falling oil prices, and corporate accumulation added macro support, though analysts remain cautious on near-term upside.

News - Bitcoin’s move above $92,000 to start 2026 marked a shift in market behavior, with large holders becoming significantly more active after months of muted positioning. On-chain data showed the average Bitcoin deposit to Binance climbing to 21.7 BTC, a 34x jump from early 2024 levels, pointing to renewed whale participation.

The rally followed a range-bound December and came alongside rising derivatives activity. Roughly $255 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past week as Bitcoin gained over 6% on a weekly basis. Despite the breakout, analysts broadly described the move as a recalibration rather than the start of an unchecked bull run.

Macro shock meets risk appetite - The price action unfolded against heightened geopolitical tension after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While Bitcoin briefly dipped during the initial headlines, it quickly recovered and reclaimed levels above $93,000, mirroring a broader risk-on response across crypto markets.

Oil prices fell sharply as traders priced in the possibility of increased Venezuelan supply under U.S. control, a move that analysts said could redirect liquidity toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin. Crypto markets largely held steady during the event, reinforcing the view that digital assets are increasingly resilient to global shocks.

Institutions and politics add complexity - Corporate accumulation added another layer to the narrative. Strategy opened 2026 with a $116 million Bitcoin purchase, even as it disclosed a $17.4 billion unrealized loss from last quarter’s drawdown. 

Meanwhile, speculation around Venezuela’s political future has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s past role as a financial lifeline under sanctions, with pro-Bitcoin opposition figures now part of the leadership conversation.

Despite rising optimism, analysts continue to expect volatility in early 2026, citing sidelined stablecoin liquidity, equity market risks, and unresolved macro uncertainty.

Altcoins steal fund flow spotlight as crypto capital rotates in early 2026

Key points:

  • Crypto investment products closed 2025 with $47.2 billion in inflows, as Ethereum, XRP, and Solana sharply outpaced Bitcoin.

  • Early 2026 signals show capital rotating selectively across funds, payments, and exchanges, pointing to conviction without broad-based risk appetite.

News - Crypto investment products ended 2025 just shy of the previous year’s record, pulling in $47.2 billion in net inflows as investor attention shifted away from Bitcoin and toward select altcoins. 

According to data from CoinShares, Bitcoin fund inflows fell 35% year over year, while Ethereum led with $12.7 billion, followed by sharp growth in XRP and Solana products.

That rotation carried into the opening days of 2026. Funds logged $671 million in inflows on the first Friday of the year, lifting weekly totals to $582 million despite midweek selling pressure. While the US continued to dominate allocations, Germany and Canada flipped prior outflows into strong inflows, highlighting a gradual broadening of global demand.

Capital is moving, but not everywhere - Beyond fund flows, capital behavior across the crypto market remained uneven. Usage data showed a surge in real-world crypto spending, with Visa-linked crypto cards recording a 525% jump in net spend during 2025. 

Analysts pointed to growing stablecoin adoption and everyday payments as signs of maturing demand, even as speculative activity stayed selective.

At the same time, on-chain data painted a more cautious picture on exchanges. Large holders moved roughly $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether onto Binance in the past week, but analysts noted that stablecoin inflows failed to rise alongside those deposits. 

The imbalance pointed to potential preparation for selling or the use of assets as collateral in derivatives markets, rather than fresh buying demand entering the market.

A market in transition - Taken together, the data points to a market reallocating rather than expanding aggressively. Investors appear comfortable backing high-conviction assets and practical crypto use cases, while remaining hesitant to chase broad upside. 

As 2026 unfolds, flow sustainability and where capital chooses to settle may matter more than headline price moves.

Ethereum’s institutional bet grows while staking, scaling, and usage align

Key points:

  • Bitmine Immersion ramped up its Ethereum exposure, lifting its ETH holdings to over 4.14 million tokens as staking plans expand into 2026.

  • Network fundamentals strengthened alongside this accumulation, with record stablecoin transfers, rising activity, and scaling upgrades moving from theory to live implementation.

News - Ethereum drew renewed institutional attention after Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed the addition of nearly 33,000 ETH to its treasury, bringing total holdings to more than 4.14 million tokens. The company’s combined crypto and cash position now stands at $14.2 billion, including over $900 million in cash and a growing Ethereum staking operation.

As of early January, Bitmine had staked more than 659,000 ETH and outlined plans to expand that figure through its in-house validator network, MAVAN, which is expected to go live in early 2026. 

At current rates, the company projects daily staking rewards exceeding $1 million, highlighting how yield generation is becoming central to large ETH treasury strategies.

Scaling progress meets real usage - This accumulation coincided with a broader strengthening of Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals. Stablecoin transfer volume on the network surpassed $8 trillion in Q4 2025, nearly doubling mid-year levels. 

Network activity also peaked, with daily transactions reaching over 2.2 million and monthly active addresses hitting a record 10.4 million in December.

At the protocol level, Vitalik Buterin said Ethereum is approaching a turning point as key scaling upgrades transition into live code. PeerDAS is already active on the mainnet, while zkEVMs are now performance-ready, with remaining work focused on safety and robustness.

Price breakout faces a test - Ethereum’s price action reflected this shift, breaking a long-running bearish structure and gaining nearly 4% over the past week. Still, analysts cautioned that heavy long positioning leaves ETH vulnerable to pullbacks unless it can clear a decisive move higher. 

Whales added roughly 320,000 ETH over the weekend, suggesting conviction, but confirmation now hinges on whether momentum can sustain beyond key resistance levels.

Ledger reassures users after Global-e breach while phishing risks resurface

Key points:

  • Ledger confirmed that a recent data breach tied to its e-commerce partner Global-e exposed limited customer information but did not compromise wallets or private keys.

  • The incident has renewed concerns around phishing and third-party security risks as attackers increasingly target wallet users through social engineering.

News - Hardware wallet maker Ledger moved to reassure customers after its third-party payment processor Global-e disclosed unauthorized access to order data affecting some Ledger buyers. The company emphasized that the incident was confined to Global-e’s systems and did not involve Ledger’s hardware, software, or wallet infrastructure.

According to Ledger, the exposed data was limited to customer names and contact details linked to purchases made through Global-e, which has acted as Ledger’s merchant of record since October 2023. Payment information, passwords, and account credentials were not affected, and Global-e does not have access to wallet seed phrases or private keys. 

Ledger said independent forensic experts were brought in to investigate the breach and that affected users are being notified.

Heightened phishing concerns - While wallet security remained intact, the exposure has heightened phishing risks. Security researchers warned that leaked personal details can be used for targeted scams, especially as attackers increasingly impersonate trusted crypto brands.

That warning comes amid a fresh wave of phishing campaigns targeting MetaMask users. Blockchain security firm SlowMist flagged scams that mimic two-factor authentication prompts, directing victims to near-identical domains and tricking them into revealing recovery phrases. Once shared, attackers can drain wallets without further approval.

A broader industry pattern - Ledger’s incident follows a string of security events across the crypto ecosystem, including recent attacks on Trust Wallet and MetaMask users. Although reported phishing losses dropped sharply in 2025, analysts noted that scams tend to resurface alongside renewed market activity.

Taken together, the incidents underscore a persistent industry challenge. As crypto adoption grows, wallet providers and users alike face increasing exposure from third-party vendors and sophisticated social engineering, reinforcing the need for constant vigilance and education around wallet security.

Did you know?

  • Ethereum validators had to change their exit key: Before Ethereum enabled staking withdrawals, validators were required to update their withdrawal credentials from the legacy 0x00 format to 0x01, a one-time change that made withdrawals possible and permanently linked validator rewards to an execution-layer address.

  • A wallet address can point to more than funds: Ethereum Name Service (ENS) records can store text, content hashes, and social metadata alongside addresses, allowing ENS names to function as decentralized identity pointers rather than simple wallet aliases.

  • Bitcoin blocks can carry messages forever: Bitcoin allows small amounts of arbitrary data to be embedded directly into the blockchain using OP_RETURN, a feature that has been used for timestamps, short messages, and protocol metadata that become permanently part of Bitcoin’s public ledger.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)

Key points:

  • VIRTUAL closed near $1.07 after a sharp daily breakout, with strong follow-through from the late-December base.

  • Trend signals flipped bullish, as the Parabolic SAR moved below price and MACD stayed positive alongside expanding volume.

What you should know:

VIRTUAL surged after breaking out of its recent consolidation, ending the session around $1.07 with a wide bullish candle. The move followed several sessions of tight trading near the $0.65–$0.75 zone, suggesting accumulation before the upside push. 

The Parabolic SAR flipped decisively below the candles, confirming a shift in short-term trend bias, while the MACD line remained above its signal line, reflecting improving momentum into the latest sessions.

Volume expanded notably during the breakout, reinforcing that the move was supported by active participation rather than a low-liquidity spike. On the narrative side, traders appeared to position ahead of the January 15 AI agent marketplace launch, which has driven renewed interest in the protocol’s utility.

Going forward, $0.90 acts as the immediate support to monitor, while $1.10 remains the first resistance zone. Sustained strength above support would keep the bullish structure intact, whereas fading volume or a SAR flip would signal cooling momentum.

Render (RENDER)

Key points:

  • RENDER jumped sharply in the latest session, breaking out from a multi-week base as buying interest returned aggressively.

  • Momentum indicators turned decisively positive, with rising volume confirming the strength behind the move.

What you should know:

RENDER staged a strong rebound after spending much of December trending lower, with the latest daily candles marking a clear shift in direction. 

Price pushed decisively above the 9-day SMA, which had previously capped upside attempts, signaling a short-term trend reset. This move was backed by a noticeable expansion in trading volume, suggesting broader participation rather than a low-liquidity spike.

Momentum also improved meaningfully. The EWO transitioned from extended negative territory into tall green bars, highlighting a sharp acceleration in bullish pressure after a prolonged corrective phase. This shift indicated that downside momentum had faded before the breakout began.

From a broader perspective, RENDER’s advance aligned with renewed interest across AI-linked tokens, as traders rotated into the sector alongside improving crypto market sentiment. For now, the $1.75–$1.80 region acts as immediate support, while the $2.20–$2.30 zone remains the next area to watch if upside follow-through continues.

BNB (BNB)

Key points:

  • BNB edged higher near $902, holding recent gains as price stabilized above the Bollinger mid-band.

  • Momentum indicators hinted at early recovery, with squeeze pressure easing and volume improving modestly.

What you should know:

BNB’s latest move unfolded after a prolonged downtrend, with recent daily candles printing higher lows and signaling a phase of stabilization rather than an outright breakout. Price drifted back above the Bollinger Bands’ midline, while the bands themselves began to slightly widen, suggesting volatility was returning after a period of compression.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator reflected this shift. Red histogram bars had been contracting for several sessions, and the latest readings flipped green, pointing to fading bearish pressure rather than strong upside acceleration. 

Volume ticked higher alongside the advance, but the absence of a sharp spike suggested measured accumulation instead of speculative chasing.

From a catalyst standpoint, attention remained on Binance’s upcoming Brevis (BREV) HODLer airdrop, which incentivized short-term BNB holding and likely supported demand. Broader risk appetite also improved as leveraged positioning increased across majors.

On the chart, $880–$890 stands as immediate support, while the upper Bollinger Band near $930–$940 remains the key area to monitor for continuation.

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