Weak jobs flip Fed bets fast

August 07, 2026

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Russia raids 9 crypto exchanges over Ukraine-linked scam claims

Key points:

  • Russian authorities detained more than 20 people after raiding nine unregistered crypto exchange services in Moscow City over an alleged scam-laundering network.

  • The FSB says stolen funds were converted into crypto and sent to Ukrainian-linked accounts, but it has not publicly identified the exchanges, cryptocurrencies, or total losses involved.

News - Russia’s security services have targeted nine unregistered crypto exchange operations in Moscow City, alleging they helped convert proceeds from phone scams into cryptocurrency before moving the funds abroad.

More than 20 exchange workers and alleged accomplices were detained in the joint FSB and Interior Ministry operation. Investigators opened cases involving large-scale fraud, an offense punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

Victims were sent to exchanges - According to the FSB, Ukraine-based call centers targeted Russian citizens, including pensioners, and instructed them to buy crypto through the exchange offices before transferring it to accounts controlled by alleged handlers.

Authorities also detained couriers aged 18 to 25 who allegedly collected cash from victims and delivered it to the exchanges for conversion.

The Ukraine link is still a claim - The FSB has not publicly released evidence substantiating its allegation of Ukrainian coordination. It also has not named the exchanges, identified the cryptocurrencies used, or disclosed aggregate losses.

One detainee shown in footage distributed by Russian state media claimed up to $2 million moved through their office in a single day, though that figure was not independently established.

New rules are approaching - The raids come ahead of Russia’s September 1 regulated crypto framework, which will introduce registration and capital requirements for exchange providers.

XRP’s 93% ETF inflow slump hides an August 6 reversal

Key points:

  • Weekly XRP ETF inflows plunged about 93% to $1.01 million, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds attracted substantially stronger flows.

  • August 6 complicated that weak weekly picture: XRP ETFs returned to inflows, smaller whales resumed buying, and more than 2 million XRP left exchanges.

News - XRP’s sharp ETF slowdown came with an important wrinkle. Weekly inflows fell from $14.86 million to just $1.01 million as XRP dropped roughly 5% over the week, making it the weakest-performing major cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, swung to a $754.69 million weekly inflow, while Ethereum funds attracted $195.34 million.

The weekly number hid a late turn - XRP ETFs recorded zero net flow on August 4 and a $3.58 million outflow on August 5 before rebounding with $3.45 million in inflows on August 6.

That late recovery was not enough to erase the earlier weakness, with total XRP ETF assets slipping to $964.21 million from $988.78 million.

Whales moved the other way - Santiment data showed wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP increasing their supply share from around 10.66% to roughly 11.99%.

The 10 million-to-100 million XRP cohort also resumed buying on August 6. Glassnode data added another signal that day, with more than 2 million XRP leaving exchanges after inflows dominated earlier in the week.

Price still refused to follow - XRP remained near $1.02-$1.03 and down about 5.5% weekly despite the August 6 ETF reversal.

That weakness coincided with the Senate postponing its CLARITY Act vote until at least September, leaving the $1 level under close market scrutiny.

Weak jobs flip Fed bets, but Bitcoin still waits

Key points:

  • U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July against forecasts for an 80,000 gain, while May and June revisions erased another 103,000 jobs.

  • Markets quickly shifted toward a September Fed pause, lifting risk assets, but Bitcoin’s response remained comparatively restrained near $65,000.

News - One jobs report was enough to reverse the market’s September rate calculus. The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while unemployment dipped to 4.1% and prior payroll estimates were revised sharply lower.

CME FedWatch data subsequently put the probability of a September hold near 56%, after markets had favored another 25-basis-point hike before the release.

The revisions deepened the miss - May payroll growth was cut to 63,000 from 129,000, while June was revised to 20,000 from 57,000, leaving the two months 103,000 jobs weaker than first reported.

Average hourly earnings also rose just 0.1% in July and 3.2% year over year, both below forecasts.

Risk markets moved faster than crypto - The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose about 1%, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened.

Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 and briefly reached about $65,340, but some reports still characterized crypto’s reaction as modest relative to other risk assets and precious metals.

CPI becomes the next fork - September hike odds fell below 50% after the report, but the possibility remained in play.

July CPI arrives August 12. Bank of America said sticky underlying inflation could keep a hike in play, while RSM economist Joe Brusuelas argued seasonal distortions may have exaggerated the jobs weakness.

Old Bitcoin moves, but selling is not the only explanation

Key points:

  • Long-term holder supply fell by roughly 210,000 BTC over the past week, the largest decline since December 2024, with some movement potentially tied to Coldcard-related custody changes.

  • Separately, a wallet dormant since 2011 moved nearly 50 BTC worth about $3.2 million to an address linked historically to FalconX activity, though the coins had not been sold as of Friday.

News - Long-held Bitcoin is moving again, but the on-chain activity does not necessarily point to capitulation.

Glassnode data showed long-term holder supply dropping from just under 15 million BTC to about 14.7 million BTC, even with Bitcoin trading near $64,000 and roughly 50% below its October record high.

Custody changes muddy the signal - Unlike previous long-term holder distribution waves near market peaks, some of the latest movement has been linked to the Coldcard security breach.

Coinkite urged affected users to create new wallets and transfer funds because a firmware flaw could expose recovery phrases. Estimates place losses from the exploit above $100 million, with thousands of wallets affected.

One ancient wallet also woke up - A separate address that had held 49.97 BTC since July 2011 moved its balance on August 6 after more than 14 years of inactivity.

The destination has previously sent bitcoin to FalconX-labeled deposits and received funds linked to Nexo and Prime Trust, but the newly transferred coins remained there as of Friday.

Movement still does not prove selling - There is no evidence connecting that 2011 wallet to the Coldcard flaw.

More broadly, transfers from old wallets can reflect security upgrades, custody changes, collateral preparation, or potential selling, meaning the recent decline in long-term holder supply cannot by itself establish waning conviction.

Apple’s Starlink Update Sparks Huge Earning Opportunity

Apple just secretly added Starlink satellite support to iPhones through iOS 18.3.

One of the biggest potential winners? Mode Mobile.

Mode’s EarnPhone already reaches 490M+ users that have earned over $1B, and that’s before global satellite coverage. With SpaceX eliminating "dead zones," Mode's earning technology can now reach billions more in unbanked and rural populations worldwide.

Their global expansion is perfectly timed, and investors like you still have a chance to invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.52/share.

With their recent 32,481% revenue growth and newly reserved Nasdaq ticker, Mode is one step closer to a potential IPO.

Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.

Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.

The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • The Bitcoin ATM payment was only the opening act: Scammers posing as tech support, bank, and government employees convinced a 70-year-old retiree to deposit about $55,700 through Bitcoin ATMs, then persuaded her to buy and hand over roughly $1.34 million in precious metals for supposed safekeeping. Two men later pleaded guilty in the nearly $1.5 million fraud and money-laundering scheme.

  • A free NFT can hide the link that empties your wallet: In June 2025, the FBI warned Hedera users about fraudulent NFT airdrops whose transaction memos contained malicious links. Those links could lead to fake dApps requesting seed phrases or other wallet credentials, giving criminals what they needed to drain victims’ crypto.

  • A pastor said his crypto investment came to him in a dream: Federal prosecutors alleged that former Washington pastor Francier Obando Pinillo told investors the idea for Solano Fi had come to him in a dream and promised a guaranteed 34.9% monthly return through crypto staking. The indictment says users could see fabricated gains but could not withdraw them, with some allegedly told to recruit another investor or send more money to unlock their funds.

The SpaceX Insiders Bought Years Ago.

The insiders who got rich on SpaceX bought years before the IPO. You can't go back — but you can get in early on the next wave. Our analyst found 3 stocks set to ride the space boom from the ground floor.

Top 3 coins of the day

Lighter (LIT)

Key points:

  • LIT broke through its prior lower-high structure as +DI surged to 37.59 and ADX climbed above 32.

  • The $2.39 to $2.40 breakout zone now becomes the key defense before another attempt at $2.48 to $2.50.

What you should know:

LIT’s rally marked a structural shift after price pushed through the lower highs that had defined its prior decline and reached $2.47. DMI reinforced that change, with +DI at 37.59 overwhelming −DI at 8.30 while ADX rose to 32.60, signaling increasingly strong bullish direction. Volume also improved during the advance, though it remained below the chart’s largest historical spikes. Outside the chart, a whale reportedly accumulated 3.38 million LIT, while a separate 15.5 million-token burn removed roughly 6.3% of circulating supply. LIT now needs to preserve $2.39 to $2.40 and clear $2.48 to $2.50. Losing the breakout zone brings $2.34 to $2.36 back into focus.

Bonk (BONK)

Key points:

  • BONK’s failed stabilization gave way to a fresh lower low as selling volume surged into the breakdown.

  • Stochastic RSI fell to 0, leaving $0.00000237 to $0.0000024 as the immediate support zone to defend.

What you should know:

BONK’s attempt to stabilize unraveled as the latest selloff broke beneath the prior higher-low structure and established a fresh lower low near $0.0000024. Stochastic RSI dropped to 0 while its signal line held at 32.85, showing that momentum had become deeply oversold without yet producing a recovery crossover. Selling volume surged during the breakdown, giving the move stronger conviction than the quieter drift that preceded it. The drop coincided with Upbit’s August 7 announcement that BONK/KRW and BONK/USDT trading support will end on September 7, adding a concrete liquidity overhang. BONK now needs to defend $0.00000237 to $0.0000024 and reclaim $0.00000252 to $0.00000255. Failure to hold the lower zone exposes $0.0000023.

Ethena (ENA)

Key points:

  • ENA held near $0.095 after a sharp breakout, while Stochastic RSI stayed bullish without entering overbought territory.

  • The $0.094 to $0.095 zone now decides whether the move consolidates constructively or slips back toward $0.092 to $0.093.

What you should know:

ENA’s latest red candle appeared more like early profit-taking rather than a full reversal, following a prior breakout that pushed price toward $0.097 on strong volume. Stochastic RSI remained constructive, with %K at 71.29 above %D at 64.31, indicating that momentum still favored buyers without entering overbought conditions. The upswing aligned with Arthur Hayes’ reported purchase of another 10.9 million ENA, bringing his five-day accumulation to 22.64 million tokens, while Maple Finance selected Ethena’s USDtb for its $400 million liquid USD safety buffers. ENA now needs to defend $0.094 to $0.095 and reclaim $0.0969 to $0.097. Losing support would reopen $0.092 to $0.093.

Markets move. Headlines catastrophize. Inside the noise is the story that matters — the opportunity, not the fear. The Daily Upside: global business and finance, reported without the alarm.

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