Whale moves hint Bitcoin stability

In partnership with

VaultCraft V2 secures $100M+ BTC from Matrixport

VaultCraft launches V2 in partnership with Safe, lands $100M+ in Bitcoin

• Matrixport entrusts VaultCraft with $100M+ Bitcoin

• OKX Web3 rolls out Safe Smart Vaults with $250K+ rewards

Visit VaultCraft

Reading time: 5 minutes

News | Crypto Converter | Crypto Calculators

BTC's price consolidates as whale accumulation signals stability

Key points:

• Bitcoin's downtrend has shown signs of fading as the ADX falls to 18.81, hinting at potential market consolidation.

• Whale activity has stabilized, with 2,056 addresses holding over 1,000 BTC, signaling cautious optimism among major investors.

News - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 2.5% decline over the past week, trading below $100,000 after reaching an all-time high earlier in December. Key metrics, such as the Average Directional Index (ADX) and whale activity, suggest the cryptocurrency may be transitioning from a downtrend to a consolidation phase.

The ADX, which measures the strength of a price trend, has fallen sharply from 50 to 18.81 over the past seven days. This indicates a weakening downward momentum and the possibility of reduced volatility in the near term.

Simultaneously, whale activity has shown signs of stabilization. After a sharp decrease in the number of addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC between December 16 and December 17, the metric has stabilized and recently climbed to 2,056. This cautious accumulation by large holders reflects renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s price potential.

Analysis - ADX and whale activity

• ADX at 18.81 - Suggests the current downtrend lacks strength, with Bitcoin likely entering a period of reduced volatility and potential sideways movement.

• Whale accumulation - After a sharp decline in large-scale holdings earlier this month, a modest rise in whale addresses indicates that major investors are cautiously optimistic about BTC’s short-term prospects.

BTC price outlook - Bitcoin is nearing a crucial resistance level at $94,200. A successful breach could set the stage for BTC to test $98,700 and $102,500, potentially resuming its upward momentum.

However, bearish sentiment lingers as short-term EMA lines remain below long-term EMAs. If Bitcoin fails to maintain support at $90,700, further declines toward $88,089 may occur, reflecting continued bearish pressure.

Bitcoin’s next moves will likely hinge on its ability to overcome key resistance levels or maintain crucial support zones, with whale activity serving as a potential indicator of broader market confidence.

Ethereum faces pressure as long-term holders’ liquidations reach 2-year high

Key points:

• Ethereum's Liveliness indicator has hit a two-year high, signaling increased liquidations by long-term holders amid heightened market volatility.

• ETH struggles between $3,327 support and $3,524 resistance, with a breakout above the latter needed to revive bullish momentum.

News - Ethereum's price struggles to reclaim $3,500 as bearish market conditions, driven by panic selling and liquidations, weigh heavily on its recovery potential. The altcoin has been trading within a narrow range for weeks, reflecting uncertainty among investors.

The recent surge in the Liveliness indicator underscores significant selling activity by long-term holders (LTHs), who are offloading their positions despite the current market downturn. Such behavior has contributed to Ethereum's inability to stabilize above crucial levels, further reducing investor confidence.

Bearish sentiment intensifies - Ethereum’s price movements reveal a market grappling with volatility and lackluster confidence. The rising Liveliness metric indicates that LTHs, often considered market stabilizers, are liquidating their holdings at an accelerated pace. This trend not only undermines price stability but also signals increased bearish sentiment in the market.

Furthermore, the dominance of loss-making transactions suggests that many investors are panic selling to cut losses or reinvest during dips. This behavior amplifies price swings, creating a challenging environment for Ethereum to regain its momentum.

What’s next for Ethereum? - Ethereum currently trades at $3,402, holding support at $3,327. However, breaking the $3,524 resistance is essential to reversing its bearish trajectory. Achieving this could pave the way for ETH to test $3,721, restoring bullish momentum and potentially attracting renewed investor interest.

Conversely, failure to hold the $3,327 support level could push ETH toward $3,000, deepening losses and delaying recovery efforts. For Ethereum to stabilize, market confidence must improve, particularly among long-term holders.

Will U.S. debt ceiling debate trigger a Bitcoin cycle bottom?

Key points:

• The U.S. debt ceiling is expected to be reached between January 14 and January 23, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urging Congress to act promptly.

• Historically, raising the debt ceiling has negatively impacted Bitcoin, which has underperformed after previous adjustments.

News - The U.S. is on the brink of reaching its debt ceiling, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioning that extraordinary measures may be needed after the borrowing limit is hit between January 14 and January 23, 2025. In a letter to Congress, Yellen emphasized the urgency of protecting the full faith and credit of the nation, as the debt limit suspension enacted in June 2023 expires.

Risk assets, including Bitcoin, reacted negatively to the announcement. The largest cryptocurrency dropped 4% from its intraday high, reflecting the bearish sentiment that has historically followed debt ceiling adjustments. Bitcoin is also down 3% for December, marking its first losing month since August.

Market context - The looming debt ceiling crisis coincides with President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, adding further uncertainty to the economic and political landscape. The event could also mark a potential bottom for Bitcoin’s price, aligning with previous cycle patterns that experienced significant drawdowns at this stage.

Since its November 2022 cycle low during the FTX collapse, Bitcoin has followed a similar trajectory to its two preceding cycles. Analysts point out that BTC is approaching a 500% return since the cycle low, mirroring historical patterns of subsequent corrections.

What’s next? - The U.S. debt ceiling debate and Trump's inauguration could create additional volatility for Bitcoin. With the largest cryptocurrency aligned with historical cycles and nearing a key inflection point, the next few weeks may determine whether BTC finds a new bottom or defies expectations to push higher.

MicroStrategy adds 2,138 BTC, extending 8-week Bitcoin buying streak

Key points:

• MicroStrategy has acquired 2,138 BTC for $209M, increasing its total holdings to 446,400 BTC, now valued at $41.5B.

• The company’s Bitcoin yield has reached 74.1% year-to-date, with plans to expand share issuance to fund further acquisitions.

News: MicroStrategy Adds More Bitcoin - MicroStrategy, the business intelligence firm known for its bullish stance on Bitcoin, announced another major purchase, acquiring 2,138 BTC for $209 million between December 23 and December 29, 2024. This purchase, made at an average price of $97,837 per BTC, boosts the company's total Bitcoin holdings to 446,400 BTC, valued at approximately $41.5 billion at current market prices.

The acquisition was funded by selling 592,987 shares during the same week, according to a filing.

Impressive yield performance - The firm reported a remarkable year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 74.1% as of December 30, with a quarterly yield of 47.8%. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor hinted at the purchase days earlier, saying MicroStrategy remains committed to buying Bitcoin regardless of price.

Consistent buying streak - This marks the eighth consecutive week of Bitcoin purchases for MicroStrategy. Since October 31, 2024, the company has added 194,180 BTC to its holdings. However, the pace of accumulation has slowed compared to November, when over 100,000 BTC were purchased.

Plans to issue more shares - In a December 23 filing with the SEC, MicroStrategy sought permission to significantly increase its authorized share capital for both Class A common and preferred stock. This would provide flexibility to issue additional shares and raise funds for further Bitcoin purchases.

What’s next? - MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy continues to make waves in both the crypto and traditional financial markets. With plans to expand share issuance, the company shows no signs of slowing its accumulation. Analysts are keenly watching for the impact of such moves on Bitcoin’s price and broader market sentiment.

More stories from the crypto ecosystem

• Curve DAO surges 24% in 7 days: Is $1.16 ahead for CRV?

• Celestia’s Ginger upgrade drives 5X throughput – Impact on TIA price? 

• Is ONDO ready to soar? Keep an eye out for 2 key areas

• Bitcoin’s ongoing accumulation: Setting the stage for $130K in 2025?

• MakerDAO revenues, fees hit fresh records – Good news for MKR?

Did you know?

• BitPay launched one of the first Bitcoin debit cards in 2013, allowing users to spend Bitcoin directly at retailers and online, converting it into fiat currency at the point of sale. This was a major milestone in integrating cryptocurrency into everyday transactions.

• The first Bitcoin transaction to buy real estate occurred in 2017 when a property in Texas was purchased for $50,000 worth of Bitcoin. This marked an important milestone in Bitcoin’s use as a legitimate medium of exchange for real-world assets.

• The first Bitcoin ETF in North America was approved in 2021 in Canada, with the Purpose Bitcoin ETF. This approval allowed institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional stock exchanges without directly owning the cryptocurrency, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.

Top 3 coins of the day

Lido DAO (LDO)

Key points:

• At press time, LDO was trading at $1.90, reflecting a 5.73% increase over the last 24 hours.

• It was the biggest gainer according to CoinMarketCap.

What you should know:

The daily chart for LDO indicated a bullish trend. The price was trading above the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting sustained upward momentum. Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) showed positive bars, indicating strong bullish momentum. Trading volume also increased, reflecting heightened market interest and participation. Immediate support is identified at $1.80, while resistance is near $2.00. A break above the resistance could lead to further gains, while a drop below the support might signal a potential reversal.

Movement (MOVE)

Key points:

• At press time, MOVE was trading at $0.94.

• It experienced a slight decline of 0.56% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the biggest losers according to CoinMarketCap.

What you should know:

The 4-hour chart for MOVE exhibited a consolidation phase after a significant bullish rally. The price was recently hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a state of equilibrium in the market. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands showed narrowing bands, indicating reduced volatility, hinting at a potential breakout. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) line displayed a gradual decline, reflecting reduced buying pressure, although it remained elevated compared to earlier levels, showing sustained interest in the asset. Recent trading volumes have decreased, further supporting the consolidation narrative. Immediate support lies at $0.90, aligned with the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance can be observed at $1.00, a psychological level, followed by $1.10. Traders should monitor these levels and volume changes closely for potential breakout opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Key points:

• At press time, BTC was trading at $93,575, reflecting a 1.76% increase over the last 24 hours.

• It remains one of the top trending cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap.

What you should know:

In the daily time frame, Bitcoin was seen to be in a consolidation phase following its recent rally. The Parabolic SAR dots shifted above the price action, signaling potential bearish pressure in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 43.09, suggesting neutral to slightly oversold conditions, which may precede a reversal. Trading volume decreased compared to previous spikes, indicating reduced market participation. Immediate support is identified around $90,000, while resistance is near $96,000. A break above the resistance could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below the support may indicate further bearish movement.