What others got wrong on China and crypto

August 18, 2025

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Stimulus speculation in China sparks altcoin buzz

Editor’s note: Some outlets misreported China’s July data. The AMBCrypto team used official figures here, showing growth slowed but didn’t collapse, while keeping the focus on analysts’ expectations for September’s stimulus.

Key points:

  • Economists say the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could move on stimulus as early as September after July data showed mixed signals: output and sales grew YoY, but momentum slowed MoM.

  • Analysts argue that new liquidity could lift risk assets, with altcoins particularly well-positioned to benefit.

News - China’s economy cooled in July, prompting speculation that the PBOC may roll out fresh support measures. Official data showed industrial output up 5.7% YoY, retail sales up 3.7% YoY (but down 0.14% MoM), and fixed-asset investment rising 1.6% YoY in Jan–Jul, though July-only FAI contracted about 5.2% YoY. The surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.0% in June.

Bloomberg Economics and analysts at Nomura and Commerzbank note that easing could come as soon as September, though the PBOC has so far emphasized targeted, flexible tools rather than a broad “bazooka.”

For crypto markets, this is significant. A March 2025 report from 21Shares found Bitcoin’s price shows a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity, stronger than both the S&P 500 and gold . With China representing ~18% of global GDP (nominal) and holding a monetary base of about $5.2 trillion, any move from the PBOC would ripple across risk assets.

Why altcoins are in focus - Before Beijing’s 2017 crackdown, altcoins like NEO and VeChain surged on strong domestic participation. Today, ownership has slipped to roughly 5–6%, but many Chinese investors still access crypto through offshore platforms. A liquidity boost could revive demand for tokens with Chinese ties while lifting the broader market.

The global backdrop - Signals from the U.S. add weight to risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 recently topped 6,400 for the first time, while 5-year Treasury yields climbed from 3.74% on August 4 to around 3.83% mid-August, reflecting reduced risk aversion among investors . Together with potential Chinese easing, this backdrop could create fertile ground for an altcoin rebound.

Risks to watch - Optimism is tempered by risks: global recession fears, regulatory headwinds, and doubts about how forceful Beijing’s stimulus will be. For now, all eyes are on the PBOC’s next step, one that could help shape crypto markets heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Dogecoin holds support as Qubic threat looms

Key points:

  • Dogecoin defended the $0.22 support after a correction from $0.28, keeping its bullish structure intact with targets at $0.32–$0.41.

  • At the same time, the AI-driven Qubic network, fresh off a Monero takeover, has voted to target Dogecoin next, raising network security concerns.

News - Dogecoin has been navigating conflicting signals this week. On the charts, DOGE found strong support at $0.22, a level reinforced by both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP confluence. Analysts note that higher highs and higher lows remain intact, suggesting the broader bullish trend is not yet broken. Sustained trading volume also points to demand, keeping the door open for attempts to retake $0.28 and move toward resistances at $0.32 and $0.41.

Away from price action, headlines have centered on Qubic, the AI-focused project that recently seized majority control of Monero’s hashrate. Founder Sergey Ivancheglo held a community vote on which proof-of-work chain should be targeted next, and Dogecoin emerged as the overwhelming choice with over 300 votes. Qubic previously reorganized Monero blocks and forced Kraken to suspend XMR deposits, stoking fears of a similar risk for DOGE.

Whale accumulation and market sentiment - Despite turbulence, whale wallets have continued to add DOGE aggressively. Data shows holdings near 100 billion tokens, with August alone seeing inflows of 680 million DOGE. This accumulation provides a counterweight to bearish pressures from trade-driven volatility and security concerns.

What traders are watching - The key near-term levels remain $0.22 as support and $0.28 as the pivot toward higher resistances. Traders are closely monitoring whether whales sustain their buying, how derivatives positioning shifts after open interest climbed, and whether Qubic follows through on its plans to pressure the network.

Saylor’s Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet double down on Bitcoin

Key points:

  • Strategy (MSTR) bought 430 BTC worth $51.4M last week, raising its holdings to 629,376 BTC as Bitcoin swung between $124K and $115K.

  • Japan’s Metaplanet added 775 BTC for ~$93M, lifting reserves to 18,888 BTC as corporate treasuries expand globally.

News - Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, continued adding to its balance sheet despite volatile price action. The firm acquired 430 BTC at an average price of $119,666, spending $51.4M. This brings its total stash to 629,376 BTC, bought for $46.15B at an average cost of $73,320 per coin. At current market prices near $115,000, the holdings are valued around $72B.

Alongside the purchase, Strategy updated its at-the-market (ATM) equity guidance. It may now issue stock even when trading below 2.5x net asset value, a shift aimed at maintaining flexibility. Saylor, commenting on Bitcoin’s wild swings, from record highs above $124K to $115K within days, described volatility as “a gift to the faithful.”

Japan’s Bitcoin treasury surge - Meanwhile, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet boosted its corporate reserves with a 775 BTC buy for roughly $93M at ~$120K per coin. That raises its holdings to 18,888 BTC, worth about $1.95B. The firm’s average cost basis now stands near $102K, with its Bitcoin stack outweighing liabilities almost 18-fold. Shares of Metaplanet rose 4% on the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in its balance-sheet strategy.

Why it matters - Together, Strategy and Metaplanet exemplify how corporate treasuries are deepening their commitment to Bitcoin despite short-term volatility. Analysts suggest such steady buying can tighten liquidity, fueling price swings but reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value. Other Japanese firms, like Remixpoint, have also added BTC recently, underscoring how Asia is joining the U.S. in driving corporate adoption.

Solana hits 100K TPS milestone, faces real-world test ahead

Key points:

  • Solana briefly peaked at 107,000 transactions per second in a mainnet stress test, the first major blockchain to cross six figures.

  • Actual usable throughput remains closer to 1,000 TPS, with validator votes inflating totals, while developers eye upgrades like Alpenglow.

News - Solana’s mainnet briefly processed 107,540 transactions per second (TPS) during a stress test on August 17, setting a new technical benchmark. Developer Mert Mumtaz of Helius highlighted the milestone as the first time a major blockchain hit six figures on-chain. The spike was achieved through “noop” program calls: lightweight instructions designed to fill blocks and test network capacity.

While eye-catching, the figure does not reflect everyday usage. Solscan and Chainspect data show that real throughput sits closer to 3,700 TPS, with nearly two-thirds of that coming from validator votes. Effective throughput for payments and DeFi applications is around 1,000 TPS. Mumtaz noted that under peak conditions, the network could theoretically sustain 80,000–100,000 TPS in real operations like oracle updates and transfers.

DeFi and memecoins fuel activity - Despite the gap between stress-test highs and practical use, Solana remains one of the busiest chains in crypto. Memecoin minting and trading platform Pump.fun accounts for more than 60% of total value locked, while overall DeFi TVL has climbed to $10.7B, near record highs. This surge underscores how grassroots speculation continues to dominate network activity.

Next up: The Alpenglow upgrade - Beyond stress tests, Solana validators are voting on the Alpenglow consensus upgrade (SIMD-0326). The proposal would replace TowerBFT with a Rotor system to cut finalization times by 100–150 milliseconds. It also introduces a Validator Admission Ticket fee of 1.6 SOL per epoch, burned to maintain discipline. If adopted, Alpenglow could bring both stronger security and faster confirmations to the network.

Did you know?

  • BlackRock has surpassed USD 100 billion in crypto holdings (mostly Bitcoin), marking one of the largest institutional exposures to digital assets to date, highlighting crypto’s rising legitimacy.

  • As of August 2025, global cryptocurrency investment funds have amassed over $176 billion in assets under management, with more than $11 billion inflows just in the first half of the year, showcasing rapid growth compared to traditional stores like gold.

  • A Dutch crypto firm, Amdax, is launching AMBTS (Amsterdam Bitcoin Treasury Strategy), a publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company aiming to acquire at least 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, reflecting blossoming institutional strategies.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Monero (XMR)

Key points:

  • At press time, XMR traded at $277, marking a 2.61% daily increase after rebounding from last week’s sharp losses.

  • The Bollinger Bands widened with price touching the midline, while the RSI recovered from oversold levels and daily trading volume showed renewed strength.

What you should know:

Monero’s price staged a rebound after dipping toward $233 earlier this week. The RSI climbed from oversold territory to hover around the neutral zone, signaling easing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands suggested that volatility had picked up, with candles reclaiming the mid-band as a short-term pivot. Volume also rose notably, reflecting improved buying interest. Beyond technicals, the recovery coincided with Monero’s community successfully countering Qubic’s attempted 51% attack. Miners redistributed hashrate across decentralized pools, while Kraken’s reopening of XMR deposits and withdrawals restored liquidity. This boosted confidence, leading to an uptick in trading activity. For now, traders are watching whether XMR can sustain support near $269 and challenge resistance around $297, which could determine if momentum extends further.

Key points:

  • At press time, LINK traded at $24.48, down 4.52% on the day despite sustaining strong weekly gains.

  • The 9-day SMA stayed below the candles, while the DMI’s +DI remained above -DI, hinting at sustained underlying bullish momentum.

What you should know:

Chainlink retraced after recently testing the $26 zone, with price easing back toward the $24.50 range. The 9-day SMA held as dynamic support, while the DMI showed +DI trending above -DI, keeping bulls in control even as momentum cooled. Daily volume also remained elevated compared to prior weeks, reflecting steady interest. On the catalyst front, Chainlink gained attention following its expanded partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to deliver forex and precious metals data on-chain, a move that strengthens its role in bridging traditional and decentralized markets. Additionally, a prominent whale accumulated over $21 million in LINK, boosting confidence among traders. For now, holding above $24.50 remains crucial, with resistance near $29.15 as the next major level to test.

Sui (SUI)

Key points:

  • SUI was last seen trading at $3.53, down 6.03% over the last 24 hours as profit-taking and liquidations weighed on price.

  • The price held just above the Bollinger midline, while the CMF stayed near neutral at -0.01 and volume reflected steady participation.

What you should know:

SUI’s sharp pullback came after a month-long 33% rally pushed the token into overbought conditions, prompting profit-taking and a wave of liquidations. Data showed $119K in short positions and $14K in longs were cleared as SUI retested the $3.57–$3.68 zone, with open interest dropping 15% to $1.79B. The Bollinger Bands confirmed rising volatility, with price clinging just above the midline, while the CMF slipped close to zero, suggesting fading inflows. Volume remained quite healthy, signaling that selling pressure was active rather than apathetic. On the catalyst side, broader market sentiment turned risk-off after U.S. inflation data triggered $1B+ in liquidations across crypto, with altcoin rotation favoring XRP (+17%) and AVAX (+14%). This shift drained liquidity from SUI despite its strong fundamentals, including a $2.15B TVL and ongoing institutional allocations. If buyers can defend the $3.57–$3.68 band as support, a rebound remains viable; failure could expose downside toward the lower Bollinger Band near $3.32.

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