Who made $1.2M early?

February 27, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

ZachXBT’s Axiom exposé sparks suspected insider betting storm on Polymarket

Key points:

  • A cluster of wallets generated over $1.2M betting on Polymarket before ZachXBT named Axiom in his insider trading investigation.

  • On-chain analysts flagged newly created, high-conviction wallets that dominated the Axiom market ahead of the public reveal.

News - What began as an investigation into alleged insider trading at Axiom quickly evolved into a second controversy. This time, the spotlight shifted to Polymarket.

After blockchain investigator ZachXBT teased that he would expose a crypto firm for insider trading, Polymarket launched a contract asking which company would be named. The market pulled in roughly $39M to $40M in volume, drawing 3,630+ addresses.

When Axiom was officially identified, attention turned to wallet activity preceding the announcement.

On-chain data compiled by Dune, Lookonchain, and other analysts showed that a small group of wallets had accumulated sizable “Yes” positions on Axiom shortly before the reveal. The eight most profitable wallets collectively earned over $1.2M. Lookonchain identified 12 suspected insider wallets generating more than $1M in profit, while one address known as predictorxyz earned approximately $411,600 after buying shares at an average of $0.14.

Meanwhile, more than 50 wallets posted significant losses, with some individual addresses losing over $100,000.

High-conviction bets raise questions - Data from blockchain observers highlighted newly created wallets placing concentrated bets within hours of the announcement. At one point, Axiom’s odds sharply increased late Wednesday before ZachXBT’s Thursday publication.

While on-chain timing patterns have fueled speculation about advance knowledge, no confirmed evidence of coordinated misconduct has emerged.

ZachXBT acknowledged that multiple people at Axiom were aware of the investigation prior to publication, making potential information leaks difficult to rule out.

A structural problem for prediction markets? - The irony has not gone unnoticed. An exposé about alleged insider trading at an exchange appears to have generated insider-style profits inside a prediction market about that very investigation.

Polymarket does not require identity verification, complicating attribution. At the same time, regulators have already placed the platform under scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions over gambling concerns.

The episode raises broader questions about information asymmetry on decentralized markets. When disclosures become tradable events, early access can translate directly into outsized gains.

Binance blocked from forcing pre-2019 claims into arbitration

Key points:

  • A federal judge ruled Binance cannot force pre-February 20, 2019, investor claims into private arbitration.

  • The court found users were not properly notified of Binance’s 2019 arbitration clause or class action waiver.

News - A U.S. federal judge has ruled that Binance cannot shift a proposed class action lawsuit into private arbitration, keeping key investor claims in open court.

U.S. District Judge Andrew Carter Jr. in the Southern District of New York held that customers who purchased tokens on Binance’s global platform before February 20, 2019, may pursue their claims in federal court. The judge concluded that Binance failed to provide sufficient notice when it updated its 2019 terms of service to include a mandatory arbitration clause and a waiver of class action rights.

The ruling prevents Binance from retroactively applying those provisions to earlier disputes.

Why the arbitration clause failed - Before 2019, Binance’s terms did not include mandatory arbitration or a class action waiver. The exchange later updated its terms online, relying on a general change-of-terms provision. Carter determined that merely posting updated terms was insufficient, noting there was no evidence the arbitration clause was clearly announced or that users were directed to review it.

The court also found the class action waiver language ambiguous and unenforceable, interpreting the contract narrowly against Binance as the drafter.

What the case covers - The lawsuit, Williams v. Binance, was brought by five U.S. investors who allege that Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao sold unregistered securities and failed to register as a broker-dealer. The claims involve seven tokens: ELF, EOS, FUN, ICX, OMG, QSP, and TRX.

Plaintiffs agreed to dismiss claims arising after February 20, 2019. The remaining claims will now proceed in U.S. court rather than private arbitration in Singapore.

The decision signals that crypto exchanges may not be able to rely on unilateral online updates to limit investor litigation retroactively.

Europe and Japan roll out regulated CHF and JPY stablecoins for institutional finance

Key points:

  • Germany’s AllUnity launched CHFAU, a BaFin-regulated Swiss franc stablecoin backed 1:1 by CHF reserves on Ethereum.

  • Japan’s SBI and Startale unveiled JPYSC, a trust bank-backed yen stablecoin set for Q2 2026 under Japan’s Type III framework.

News - Regulated stablecoin infrastructure is expanding beyond the U.S. dollar, with parallel developments in Europe and Japan targeting institutional finance.

In Germany, AllUnity launched CHFAU, a Swiss franc-pegged stablecoin fully backed 1:1 by CHF reserves and issued as an e-money token under BaFin supervision. The token debuts on Ethereum as an ERC-20 asset and is initially available to institutional and professional investors through the AllUnity Mint Platform.

The launch follows AllUnity’s earlier euro-pegged stablecoin and reflects rising demand for compliant non-dollar digital currencies. CHFAU’s reserves are held in segregated accounts and the token is redeemable at par value under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation framework.

Meanwhile in Japan, SBI Holdings and Startale Group announced JPYSC, a Japanese yen-denominated stablecoin to be issued by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank. Structured as a Type III electronic payment instrument, the token is designed for cross-border payments, treasury management, and tokenized asset settlement. Launch is planned for Q2 2026, pending regulatory approval.

Institutional focus over retail hype - Both projects emphasize enterprise-grade use cases rather than retail speculation.

CHFAU is positioned for digital asset settlement and corporate treasury operations, while JPYSC targets banks, financial firms, and large corporates seeking regulated digital yen infrastructure. SBI VC Trade will act as the primary distribution partner, with Startale leading technical development.

Safe haven and regulatory tailwinds - The Swiss franc has drawn increased attention from major banks. Morgan Stanley compared the currency to gold and projected potential appreciation against the U.S. dollar, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have expressed preference for the franc over the Japanese yen in periods of uncertainty.

At the same time, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is shifting oversight from the Payment Services Act (PSA) to the stricter Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), a move aimed at strengthening investor protections and curbing fraud.

Together, the launches highlight a broader shift toward regulated, multi-currency digital settlement layers built for institutional capital flows.

Bitcoin miners post heavy Q4 losses as MARA accelerates AI pivot

Key points:

  • MARA reported a $1.71 billion Q4 loss after a $1.5 billion Bitcoin fair-value write-down

  • Miners including TeraWulf and American Bitcoin also posted losses, intensifying the shift toward AI and high-performance compute

News - Bitcoin miners closed 2025 under pressure as falling crypto prices reshaped earnings across the sector.

MARA Holdings reported a fourth quarter net loss of $1.71 billion, compared with net income of $528.3 million a year earlier. The hit was largely driven by a $1.5 billion negative change in the fair value of digital assets as Bitcoin declined from about $114,300 at the end of September to roughly $88,800 by December 31.

Quarterly revenue slipped 6% year over year to $202.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung to negative $1.49 billion. For the full year, MARA booked a $1.31 billion net loss despite revenue rising to $907.1 million.

The company ended 2025 holding 53,822 BTC valued at approximately $4.7 billion at a quarter-end price of $87,498 per coin, including 15,315 BTC that were loaned or pledged as collateral.

From hashrate to high-performance compute - As mining margins tightened, MARA expanded its infrastructure strategy.

The company announced a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop AI and high-performance compute data centers, targeting more than 1 gigawatt of initial IT capacity with a roadmap exceeding 2.5 gigawatts over time. MARA may hold between 10% and 50% equity in individual projects.

While shares rose in after-hours trading following the announcement, analysts cautioned that confirmed tenant agreements will determine whether AI revenue meaningfully shifts earnings away from Bitcoin exposure.

Sector strain spreads - TeraWulf reported a Q4 loss of $1.66 per share as mining revenue declined, though it cited $12.8 billion in signed AI and HPC contracts to support future growth. The company plans to expand capacity to roughly 2.8 gigawatts across five sites.

Meanwhile, American Bitcoin posted a $59.45 million Q4 net loss. Its shares have fallen more than 39% year to date, outpacing Bitcoin’s own decline.

With Bitcoin trading near $67,000 at the time of publication and below MacroMicro’s estimated average cost to mine one coin of $87,310, the pressure on miners to diversify beyond pure-play BTC exposure appears to be accelerating.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • A $61 million stablecoin stash just got yanked out of a romance-driven “pig butchering” pipeline: On February 24, 2026, U.S. authorities in North Carolina said federal agents seized over $61 million in USDT traced to wallets allegedly tied to laundering proceeds from crypto investment scams that began with fake romantic trust-building.

  • A $196 million ponzi case just added a new face, and the playbook looks painfully familiar: The SEC said a Florida salesman and his team raised $25.2 million from 1,222 investors selling unregistered offerings tied to the MJ Capital scheme, with a settled action filed over unregistered broker activity and securities sales.

  • A fake “digital currency exchange portal” allegedly helped drain $5 million from Australia’s most vulnerable: NSW Police said an alleged crypto investment scam routed victim deposits through multiple wallets and exchanges via a portal called “NEXOpayment,” with 190+ elderly and vulnerable Australians allegedly defrauded since November 2025, and a man charged on February 21, 2026.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Internet Computer (ICP)

Key points:

  • ICP climbed to $2.51 after rebounding from the $2.10 area, but the latest upswing remains capped below the $2.70 lower high.

  • DMI showed +DI leading -DI with ADX near 30, indicating improving momentum within a still-unconfirmed broader reversal.

What you should know:

ICP advanced toward $2.51 after bouncing from the February low near $2.10, marking a constructive short-term push. However, the structure on the chart continued to reflect a broader sequence of lower highs, with the recent rally stalling beneath the $2.70 zone. Until that level is reclaimed, the larger trend technically remains corrective rather than fully reversed.

Momentum readings improved. The +DI line moved above -DI, while ADX hovered around 30, suggesting strengthening directional pressure without entering extreme conditions. Volume expanded during the initial rebound phase but has since moderated, signaling steady rather than aggressive participation.

Immediate support rests at $2.40, followed by $2.10. On the upside, $2.60 to $2.70 remains the key resistance band. A decisive break above that region would be required to invalidate the prevailing lower high structure and shift trend bias more convincingly.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

Key points:

  • PUMP held above $0.0017 and hovered near $0.0018, attempting to regain traction beneath the 9-day SMA at $0.0019.

  • Stochastic RSI curled upward from oversold territory, hinting at early momentum rebuilding as ecosystem chatter intensified.

What you should know:

After dipping toward $0.0017, PUMP staged a controlled bounce and briefly tagged $0.0019 before easing back toward $0.0018. The move marked stabilization rather than a confirmed breakout, as price remained below the downward-sloping 9-day SMA at $0.0019.

Momentum dynamics improved at the margin. The Stochastic RSI rose from deeply oversold readings, with %K crossing above %D, suggesting selling pressure had cooled and short-term buyers were stepping back in. Participation increased during the rebound, though volume did not reflect a full conviction surge.

Speculative interest appears tied to ecosystem developments, including the rollout of PumpMarket and increased visibility around the pump-sdk developer toolkit. For structure to strengthen meaningfully, PUMP needs to reclaim $0.0019. Holding $0.0017 keeps the current stabilization intact, while a break below $0.0016 would reintroduce downside risk.

Monero (XMR)

Key points:

  • XMR hovered around $343 after recovering from $275, yet the latest rally topped near $356, marking a fresh lower high.

  • Squeeze Momentum continued climbing toward the zero line, showing selling pressure has faded, though bullish expansion remains restrained.

What you should know:

Following the steep slide to $275 earlier in February, Monero rebuilt footing above $320 and advanced toward $356 before pulling back slightly. That rebound established a higher low, but the most recent swing failed to clear prior resistance, reinforcing a lower high within the broader corrective structure.

Momentum conditions gradually shifted. The Squeeze Momentum histogram moved from deep red into lighter readings and recently printed small green bars, suggesting the prior bearish impulse lost intensity. However, the absence of strong positive expansion indicates the move is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Volume surged during the initial recovery phase but has since normalized, pointing to measured participation.

For structure to improve, XMR needs to reclaim $356 convincingly. Holding above $330 keeps the recent higher low intact, while a loss of that zone risks reopening downside pressure toward $275.

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