XRP fights on despite legal blow

May 16, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Bitcoin bulls hit $120M sell wall, power curve still sees $220K

Key points:

  • Bitcoin faces a $120M resistance cluster between $104.8K–$105K, stalling its stair-step rally.

  • Despite the pause, gold-based models forecast BTC could reach $220K–$250K in 2025.

News - Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck below the $105,000 mark, consolidating within a tight $3,500 range as large sell orders and macro uncertainty stall upward momentum. Order book data reveals nearly $120 million in sell pressure stacked between $104,800 and $105,000 across major exchanges, according to Kiyotaka.ai.

This hurdle comes after BTC’s controlled “stair-step” rally from $75,000 to $104,000 since April, with price action consolidating between $101K–$105K since May 10. Traders are watching the $98K–$100K zone for support, while a breakout above $106K could reignite bullish momentum.

Swissblock and Material Indicators both noted that a lack of serious catalysts is preventing a breakout, while social metrics from Santiment show growing impatience among retail traders—an emotion that historically precedes bullish moves.

Forecast models still see $220K BTC - Despite current resistance, long-term models remain optimistic. Analyst Apsk32’s “Bitcoin power curve”—which maps BTC’s market cap to gold’s value—suggests a reasonable 2025 target of $220K, with $250K being possible if momentum builds.

The model, which removes USD inflation effects by using gold ounces, has gained traction amid BTC’s increasing correlation with gold’s macro cycles. If Bitcoin captures even 50% of gold’s projected market cap by decade’s end, some analysts foresee a path to $924K.

What’s next? - Bulls may need to chew through heavy sell walls and await a clear catalyst before reclaiming all-time highs. But if historical stair-step patterns persist and gold-linked models hold true, Bitcoin’s pause may only be temporary.

Rejected settlement, rising charts: XRP’s tug of war

Key points:

  • A federal judge rejected Ripple and SEC’s $50M settlement proposal over procedural flaws, despite both parties supporting it.

  • XRP is forming a bullish V-shaped recovery, with open interest up 53% and price targets between $3.40 and $3.60.

News - XRP is rallying on strong technicals and rising futures interest—even as the long-running legal saga between Ripple and the SEC hit another procedural snag.

On May 16, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres rejected the proposed $50 million settlement between Ripple Labs and the SEC, citing jurisdictional and procedural issues. Since the case is currently under appeal, Torres stated she lacked the authority to act, adding that the motion itself was “procedurally improper.”

Despite this setback, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty clarified that Ripple’s previous wins remain intact, and both parties will “revisit the issue together.”

Meanwhile, XRP’s technical setup remains compelling. The token has gained 13% in the past two weeks, forming a V-shaped recovery on the weekly chart. Open interest (OI) surged by 53% between May 8 and May 14—rising from $3.61B to $5.53B—indicating growing speculative demand. XRP is currently trading near $2.40.

Bullish breakout or bear trap? - XRP is also retesting a falling wedge breakout, which could launch the token toward $3.60, according to chartist CW. However, some analysts warn of a possible inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which—if confirmed by a breakdown below $1.11—could trigger a sharp correction toward $0.50.

Adding to the caution, XRP remains below the $2.58 average cost basis of whale wallets, signaling potential selling pressure unless bulls reclaim that level. But a continued climb above it may indicate renewed whale conviction, especially amid speculation around a spot XRP ETF launch.

What’s next? - Despite the legal hiccup, XRP’s path to reclaiming multi-year highs remains open—as long as bulls defend key support levels and reclaim whale entry zones. All eyes are now on the $2.60 and $3.40 marks, which could determine whether XRP surges—or stalls.

$400M fallout, SEC probe: Coinbase under fire

Key points:

  • Coinbase shares dropped 7% after a customer data breach and renewed SEC scrutiny of its 2021 user metrics.

  • Analysts call the sell-off “overblown,” but community outrage grows over delayed breach disclosure and privacy risks.

News - Coinbase is under fire after disclosing a social engineering-driven insider breach and facing renewed investigation from the SEC. The exchange’s stock (COIN) dropped over 7% on May 15, closing at $244, with analysts and users reacting sharply—but for very different reasons.

The breach involved bribed overseas support agents leaking customer data like names, addresses, and masked IDs. While less than 1% of users were affected and no funds or keys were compromised, the attackers reportedly demanded $20 million in ransom, which Coinbase refused. The exchange pledged up to $400 million in reimbursement and remediation efforts.

Simultaneously, the SEC has revived an old probe into Coinbase’s “100+ million verified users” claim from its 2021 IPO. The company stopped reporting this metric over two years ago, now preferring “monthly transacting users” as a more relevant figure. Coinbase's legal chief called the probe “a holdover from the prior administration.”

Reputational risks run deeper than the market drop - While analysts from Barclays and Oppenheimer described the stock reaction as “somewhat overblown”, the community backlash is intensifying. Reports suggest the breach may have occurred as early as January, but was disclosed only recently. Victims have shared stories of sophisticated phishing attempts, prompting fears over KYC data misuse.

Critics, including analysts and privacy advocates, argue that giving support agents access to sensitive identity documents reflects a systemic internal control failure. With Coinbase playing a central custodial role in most U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, some warn that the incident exposes a potential single point of failure in the broader crypto infrastructure.

What’s next? - Coinbase is offering a $20M bounty for information leading to the hackers’ arrest, but pressure is mounting for greater transparency and reform. As one analyst noted, “This wasn’t a blockchain hack—it was a human one.”

4,100 BTC stolen, DOJ charges 12 in Genesis-linked crypto heist

Key points:

  • Twelve individuals were charged for stealing $263 million in crypto via scams, hacks, and burglaries targeting a Genesis creditor.

  • The group, led by Malone Lam, stole 4,100 BTC in a single hit and laundered funds through mixers and peel chains.

News - The U.S. Department of Justice has indicted 12 individuals in connection with a sprawling $263 million crypto theft ring, which involved social engineering, hacking, money laundering, and even home invasions. The charges expand on a 2024 case involving Malone Lam, now accused of leading a cyber-enabled racketeering operation.

At the heart of the case is the theft of 4,100 Bitcoin (then valued at over $230 million) from a Genesis creditor in August 2024. Prosecutors say Lam and his co-conspirators used tactics ranging from phishing and database leaks to physical break-ins. In one instance, Lam reportedly hacked a victim’s iCloud to track movements while an associate burglarized the target’s home to steal a hardware wallet.

Several defendants—many under the age of 22—were arrested in California this week. Two remain at large in Dubai. The group allegedly used aliases like “Goth Ferrari” and “The Accountant” and funded lavish lifestyles with the stolen crypto, splurging on nightclubs, exotic cars, and fake ID rentals for jets and real estate.

Social engineering at scale - The DOJ emphasized that the ring relied heavily on social engineering, targeting users by exploiting personal data—often obtained through database purchases or insider leaks. The case’s exposure follows heightened scrutiny after Coinbase recently disclosed a separate insider breach.

While the DOJ recently scaled back its crypto enforcement unit, the new indictments—and separate charges against Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm—signal that high-profile crypto crime remains firmly in its sights.

What’s next? - With multiple arrests and a growing public spotlight on insider-driven scams, the case underscores the evolving playbook of crypto criminals—and the urgency for stronger operational security across the industry.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Coinbase insider breach leads to $20 million extortion attempt: Hackers bribed external customer support agents at Coinbase to access sensitive user data, including names and partial Social Security numbers. The attackers demanded a $20 million ransom, which Coinbase refused to pay, instead offering a $20 million bounty for information leading to their capture.

  • DOJ charges 12 in $263 million crypto fraud linked to Genesis creditor: The U.S. Department of Justice has charged 12 individuals in a racketeering conspiracy involving over $263 million in cryptocurrency thefts, money laundering, and home break-ins. The scheme included siphoning $243 million from a Genesis creditor using social engineering tactics.

  • Wellington man arrested in $450 million international crypto scam: A Wellington man has been arrested as part of an FBI investigation into an organized criminal group that stole cryptocurrency valued at $450 million. The group allegedly laundered funds through multiple platforms and purchased luxury items, including $9 million in exotic cars.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Sui (SUI)

Key points:

  • SUI rose by 2.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $3.89, maintaining its upward trajectory.

  • The Moving Average Ribbon continued to support the bullish trend, while the RSI hovered near overbought territory.

What you should know:

Sui sustained its bullish momentum, climbing 2.5% to trade at $3.89. The Moving Average Ribbon indicated strong support, with shorter-term averages remaining above the longer-term ones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed elevated, suggesting continued buying interest, though caution is warranted as it approaches overbought levels. Recent developments have bolstered SUI's performance. A strategic partnership with 21Shares aims to expand global access to the Sui network, enhancing institutional adoption and real-world asset tokenization. Additionally, the integration of Bitlayer's BitVM bridge introduces Peg-BTC (YBTC) to Sui's ecosystem, enabling Bitcoin holders to participate in DeFi activities within Sui. Despite concerns over a recent $332 million token unlock, SUI's price demonstrated resilience, absorbing the increased supply without significant downturns. The upcoming "Great Sui Odyssey #5" event in Vietnam is anticipated to further spotlight Sui's advancements in AI, gaming, and DeFi sectors. Traders should monitor the $4.00 resistance level for potential breakouts, while support is expected around the $3.70 mark.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Key points:

  • DOGE climbed by 3.09% over the past 24 hours, trading at $0.22 amid rising accumulation.

  • The MA Ribbon continued trending upward, while the DMI showed fading trend strength despite the price uptick.

What you should know:

Dogecoin gained 3.09% over the last 24 hours, pushing to $0.22 at press time and marking a continuation of its short-term recovery. The MA Ribbon maintained a bullish alignment, though the ribbons have begun to narrow — a potential early sign of consolidation. Meanwhile, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) reflected softening momentum, with the ADX line dipping slightly. Despite the technical caution, DOGE's fundamentals saw a major spike. As per maor reports, active addresses surged by 528% in a single day, hitting nearly 470,000 — the highest in recent months. This wave of on-chain activity followed the SEC's recent acknowledgement of the 21Shares Dogecoin spot ETF, which boosted trader sentiment across memecoin markets. Separately, Coinbase agreed to a $2.25 million settlement to resolve a lawsuit related to its 2021 Dogecoin sweepstakes, a move that eliminated some lingering regulatory overhangs for the token. Looking ahead, traders should keep an eye on resistance at $0.24, while $0.21 continues to act as a strong support zone during any pullbacks.

Pepe (PEPE)

Key points:

  • PEPE surged by 2.76% over the past 24 hours, trading at $0.0000133 amid heightened whale activity.

  • The MA Ribbon maintained a bullish alignment, while the Awesome Oscillator reflected sustained positive momentum.

What you should know:

Pepe gained 2.76% in the past 24 hours to trade at $0.0000133, continuing its upward push. The MA Ribbon retained a bullish structure, and the Awesome Oscillator stayed green, reflecting strong buying momentum. On-chain data revealed that whale activity spiked recently with 720 transactions above $100K recorded in a single day, possibly signaling profit-taking. Meanwhile, PEPE outperformed Bitcoin with a 55% gain on the PEPE/BTC pair. However, a drop in the 30-day MVRV ratio from 40% to 25.82% suggests rising sell pressure from short-term holders. Traders should watch for a break above $0.0000150 to confirm continuation, while $0.0000125 remains key support.

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